When Good Retention Isn’t Good: What is Your Turnover Rate Actually Telling You?

Contents

2026/27 Payroll Legislation Guide

Payroll Legislation Guide 2627

The facts, figures, thresholds and allowances for 2026/27, in one handy guide.

A retention or turnover percentage on its own tells you almost nothing about whether your organisation is performing well. The number only becomes useful once you know who left, why they left, how long they had been employed, and what their departure cost the business. 

High retention is generally treated as proof of a positive culture, effective management, and a good place to work. And rising turnover is treated as an automatic warning sign.  

Neither assumption holds up on its own. High retention can equally mean managers are avoiding difficult performance conversations, employees have become comfortable rather than committed, or external job opportunities are simply limited.  

Turnover can tell very different stories too: the resignation of a high performer from a critical role is a different event from the fair, timely dismissal of someone who hasn’t met the required standard during probation. 

The headline figure alone rarely tells us which of these things is happening. 

Is there such a thing as a "good" turnover rate?

The most widely used UK benchmark, CIPD’s analysis of ONS Annual Population Survey data, puts average annual staff turnover at 34%, ranging from around 25% in public administration and defence up to 52% in hospitality. Comparing your own figure to this national average is of limited use on its own: turnover varies by sector, occupation, location, organisational size, and economic conditions, and it’s calculated differently across surveys.  

A hospitality business, a technology company, and a professional services firm are not aiming for the same level of workforce movement, and even organisations in the same sector can diverge for legitimate reasons, one growing and recruiting for new roles, another restructuring around automation. 

Data can provide useful context but shouldn’t be used as a “pass or fail”. Saying turnover is 15% tells you very little on its own. Replacing an employee costs an average of £30,614 (Oxford Economics), so the real question isn’t “is our turnover higher or lower than average”, it’s “are we retaining the people we need, and are people leaving for the right reasons?” Not all turnover is equal. 

What's the difference between voluntary and employer-initiated turnover?

Voluntary and employer-initiated turnover should always be reported separately. Within voluntary turnover, it also matters which departures were genuinely regretted. Regretted turnover is a voluntary departure the organisation would have preferred to prevent.  

The simplest test: would we actively like to retain this person? A departure that instead creates an opportunity to restructure a role, close a skills gap or bring in different capabilities is not regretted turnover, even though it’s still voluntary. 

The same logic applies to employer-initiated turnover. A rise in dismissals is not automatically a problem; it can reflect more consistent performance management and a willingness to make necessary decisions. But it can also expose weaknesses elsewhere. If a large share of new recruits fail probation, the issue may sit with recruitment decisions, unclear role expectations, weak onboarding, insufficient training or a lack of management support, not solely with the employees who left. The number is the starting point for the conversation, not the conclusion. 

What does early turnover tell us about recruitment and onboarding?

Early-tenure turnover deserves particular attention because it reveals how well recruitment, onboarding, and probation are actually working.  

Low voluntary turnover in the first year suggests recruitment is working, new employees are supported, and their experience matches what they were sold at interview. A low rate of failed probation can suggest the organisation selects and develops people effectively, but that result still needs testing: if employees whose performance is known to be below standard are still passing probation, a very low failed-probation rate may mean probation isn’t being monitored properly, not that everything is working well.  

At the other end, a high failed-probation rate can show managers making timely decisions, or it can show recruitment repeatedly producing unsuitable appointments. Early turnover is neither inherently good nor bad; its value is in what it reveals about the employee journey. 

How is the six-month unfair dismissal change affecting probation decisions before 2027?

From 1 January 2027, the qualifying period for ordinary unfair dismissal claims reduces from two years to six months, and the statutory cap on unfair dismissal compensation is being removed on the same date (Employment Rights Act 2025). Together, these changes are likely to alter employer behaviour: expect more structured probation reviews and managers focused on reaching clear decisions earlier, which may increase employer-initiated turnover in the first three to six months of employment. That would not automatically mean retention has deteriorated; it could mean employers are making earlier, better-evidenced decisions instead of letting unresolved performance concerns run on. 

Dismissing someone just before the six-month mark should not become a substitute for effective management or fair treatment. Discrimination, whistleblowing and several other claims do not depend on the employee completing the ordinary qualifying period, and extending a contractual probation period does not delay the point at which statutory protection applies either. A rushed or poorly evidenced decision still carries legal, employee relations and reputational risk. 

Employers should prepare now by ensuring: 

  • probation periods and review arrangements are clearly documented; 
  • managers understand the statutory six-month point; 
  • meaningful reviews happen well before that date; 
  • objectives and expected standards are clear; 
  • concerns are raised promptly rather than saved for the final review; 
  • employees get appropriate support and a genuine opportunity to improve; and 
  • decisions are fair, consistent and properly documented. 

The objective is better probation management, not simply faster dismissal. 

What HR metrics actually show whether retention is healthy?

A single leaver number cannot answer that question. The following measures, considered together, give a more accurate picture: 

Metric category What it reveals
Total, voluntary, and employer-initiated turnover Whether people are choosing to leave or being asked to
Regretted turnover; turnover among high performers and critical roles Whether you're losing the people you actually need to keep
Early turnover at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months; reasons for leaving How well recruitment, onboarding and probation are working
Failed and extended probations; probation reviews completed on time Whether probation is being monitored and managed properly
Turnover by manager, team, role, and location Where retention problems are actually concentrated
Internal promotion and movement; performance-management activity Whether good people can see a future internally
Employee engagement; absence Underlying workforce wellbeing, not just exit data
Customer, productivity, or quality measures; cost and time to replace key employees The real business impact of who stays and who leaves

These measures mean far more read together than read alone. 

Signal combination What it likely means
High retention + strong performance + internal progression + positive customer outcomes Genuinely healthy retention
High retention + limited performance management + few internal moves + persistent quality concerns Retention masking an underlying problem
Increased early turnover + more timely probation reviews + improving performance among retained hires Positive management behaviour, not a retention failure

From counting leavers to understanding workforce health

HR metrics should help you make better decisions, not produce a reassuring green indicator for a Board report.  

The objective is not to retain every employee for as long as possible. It is to retain capable people in roles the organisation needs, protect critical knowledge and skills, create opportunities for good employees to develop, identify and address avoidable reasons for leaving, and act fairly and promptly where conduct, performance or role fit isn’t satisfactory. 

External benchmarking has its place, but the most meaningful benchmark is usually your own data over time. Are you losing fewer high performers? Are recruitment decisions improving? Are new employees becoming effective more quickly? Are managers addressing concerns promptly? Are people leaving particular teams for recurring reasons? Are you retaining employees because they’re engaged and contributing, or because managers are reluctant to address underperformance? 

Retention is not automatically evidence of success, just as turnover is not automatically evidence of failure. The real measure of a healthy organisation is whether it retains the right people, supports them to perform at their best, and is prepared to act when the employment relationship is no longer working. That is the story your HR metrics should be helping you tell. 

Frequently asked questions

A: No. High retention can reflect strong culture and competitive reward, but it can equally mean managers are avoiding difficult performance conversations, or that external job opportunities are limited. The retention figure alone cannot tell you which is true.

A: There is no single "good" turnover rate. The UK average is around 34% (CIPD analysis of ONS data), but this varies hugely by sector, from about 25% in public administration to 52% in hospitality, so comparing your figure to a generic benchmark tells you very little on its own.

A: Regretted turnover is a voluntary departure the organisation would have preferred to prevent. The simplest test is whether you can honestly answer yes to: would we actively like to retain this person?

A: From 1 January 2027, employees gain unfair dismissal protection after six months' service instead of two years, and the compensation cap is being removed on the same date. Employers are likely to introduce more structured, earlier probation reviews, which may increase employer-initiated turnover in the first three to six months without that increase meaning retention has deteriorated.

A: It depends on the pattern. Low early-tenure turnover usually points to effective recruitment and onboarding, but if it exists alongside known underperformers passing probation, it may mean probation isn't being monitored properly rather than that everything is working well.

A: No single metric does. Retention should be read alongside voluntary vs employer-initiated turnover, regretted turnover, early turnover at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months, reasons for leaving, probation outcomes, internal promotion rates, performance-management activity and the cost of replacing key employees. 

Picture of Sarah Gray
Sarah Gray
Sarah is Cintra's Director of HR, and has more years of HR experience spanning recruitment, training, HR admin & employment law than she likes to admit to! Sarah is quite the adventurer, and once co-sailed a 42ft catamaran from Australia, all the way to New Caledonia and Vanuatu and back.